Shutdown Pair

Tag: Mike Green

  • Potential Opponents

    Now that the Sabres are all but assured of making the playoffs, let’s take a look at their most likely combatants.  There’s a few possibilities here, as the Sabres could be anywhere from 6th to 8th.  7th is the most likely spot to finish in.

    First up is the Washington Capitals.  The season series with the Caps was 1-2-1, with Miller going 1-2-0 with a 2.32 GAA and .924 SP.  Jhonas Enroth played the game last week, losing in OT (sandwiched between those 2 outstanding games for what it is worth).  The win, if you recall, was the game that Thomas Vanek dazzled John Carlson and Braden Holtby for the OT winner.  I’d be curious to see what a seven game series against the Caps would look like, as Buffalo is playing much better lately, and Washington has some injuries of their own they are dealing with, including Mike Green, Dennis Wideman and Tom Poti on the blueline.

    Next up in the likely opponents list is the Flyers.  Unlike the Caps, the Sabres have one more game against the Flyers this Friday, going 1-2 in the first three.  Ryan Miller has played all 3 games against Philly, and the numbers aren’t great – 4.03 GAA, .881 SP.  Again, a couple of those were earlier in the year and the most recent game is a 5-3 win.   The Flyers are 2-3-3 in their past 8 and who knows what’s going to happen with their goaltending tandem.  Bobrovsky is the likely starter for the playoffs, though you have to think Philly wouldn’t hesitate long to put the more veteran Boucher in there if  ‘Bob’ struggles.  They’ve also been missing Pronger and Briere, though Briere might be in for the Sabres game Friday.  Pronger hasn’t played since March 8th and had a ‘minor setback’ in rehab that puts his earliest return game 1 of a potential playoff matchup at the earliest.

    The other likely foe would be the Boston Bruins.  This probably happens if the Sabres can overtake Montreal for 6th in the conference.  Buffalo has gone 4-1-1 in the season series, with Miller posting the 4-0-1 portion of that, with a 3.01 GAA and .911 SP.  Those numbers are skewed a bit by the 7-6 SO win where Stafford scored with 30 seconds to go to tie the game.  Tim Thomas took back the goaltending job from Tuukka Rask and had a Vezina-caliber season.  I’m really hoping they end up playing Montreal, though.  It would be great drama, not to mention they are likely to beat each other up.

    As of today, it is still mathematically possible to see the Lightning (and an even smaller chance to see the Penguins) but it’s so unlikely that there’s no reason to worry about it.  Looking at the potentials, there’s nobody there that this team, they way they are playing can’t stand toe to toe with.  There’s a lot of variables right now with the health of key guys up and down the Eastern conference, including the Sabres with Miller, Pronger as I mentioned, and the Washington D.  Boston has the best goaltending situation, but the Sabres still have a great record against them.  I know the excitement builds with every passing day, and I expect tonight’s home game crowd to blow the roof off the place.  Let’s send this team streaking into the playoffs.

  • The “Sophomore Jinx” and Tyler Myers

    Or the Sophomore Slump, whatever it’s called, every hot rookie is said to have to ‘watch out’ for it.  But is it real?  I asked Gabe Desjardins over at Behind The Net the question on Twitter, and here was the response:

    Sophomore slump usually on-ice Sh% regressing to mean, or coach giving young guy tougher assignments. Player doesn’t regress tho

    Hmm, these are two things we have stats for.  Let’s investigate the second part first.  Myers had the highest Quality of Competition rating of any D on the Sabres last year (Tallinder .001 behind as the other member of the shutdown pair), jumping over the boards whenever the likes of Ovechkin, Crosby and Stamkos were on the ice.  I don’t know how much better his opponents can get.  He is top 15 for NHL D in time on ice, averaging 3 minutes shorthanded time AND power play time, so it’s not a matter of playing more.

    With that covered, we look at shooting percentage.  Tyler’s shooting percentage last season was 10.6% on 104 shots, a pretty healthy clip but not abnormally inflated (like say, Lee Stempniak in Phoenix).  Your goal-scoring, offensive defenseman typically has a shooting percentage in the 8-11% range, so there shouldn’t be a huge change here.  What COULD change, and would result in the goal total increase over the next few years I’d expect, is the shot total.  104 is low compared to some of the veteran D that pile up goals (Mike Green 205, Shea Weber 222 for example).  Gabe had an interesting article on this at the end of last season, actually:

    Shooting percentage is essentially constant from Age 19 to 26, and then it begins a long, slow decline.  What does increase, however, is the number of goals scored per game – because the number of shots taken per game goes up much faster than shooting percentage drops

    I think this bodes well for Myers and his ability to improve.  He has a very good point shot, and it’s not a stretch to think that he has the green light to shoot more often.  I’d like to see a total closer to 150 shots, with a focus on using his shot on the power play to create goals and rebound chances.  Even if his shooting percentage dropped a bit, that would still have Myers bumping up his point totals a bit to the 14-15 G, 45A range.  We’ll know more once the first few regular season games get rolling.

  • NHL Awards Ceremony Pregame

    The NHL gives away it’s major awards tonight in Las Vegas, and I thought I’d toss up some notes in case you are the sort that ignores the off-season until training camp.

    The first name you need to listen for is Ryan Miller.  He is a Vezina finalist, against Brodeur and Bryzgalov.  He has a great look at winning this, especially with the crest of popularity he has from the Olympics here in the US.  Miller is also a top contender for the Messier Leadership award, where he’s up against Sidney Crosby and Shane Doan.

    Miller is also up for the NHL Foundation Award, which, well:

    is awarded annually to the National Hockey League (NHL) player “who applies the core values of (ice) hockey—commitment, perseverance and teamwork—to enrich the lives of people in his community”.

    That’s definitely our man, what with his creation of the Steadfast Foundation and work with other charities.  Mike Green and Dustin Brown are also candidates.

    Perhaps the most interesting award for Sabres fans this year is the Calder trophy, with Tyler Myers up against Matt Duchene of the Avs and Jimmy Howard of the Red Wings.  There are good arguments for all of them, and I’m not honestly sure I could be unbiased about this one.  I think Tyler Myers did more for his team this year, as he basically allowed Buffalo to play the game differently, he came up huge offensively, was huge (heh) in his own zone as well, and soaked up a ton of minutes.  Jimmy Howard could steal this, though, with the ‘goalie is a harder position’ argument.