Well, the waiting is just about over. Who wins? The star goalie or the dopey kid Russian? The Bullies or the Blades? How corny can I get? You don’t want to know.
Let’s do this, Sabres. Fortune favors the bold.
Category: Sabres
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Mustaches for Martin
I had planned on going full playoff beard this year (not that I don’t usually have one anyway but still), but I’m rethinking that with the brilliant idea of Mustaches for Martin. To honor number 7, Rick Martin of the French Connection (who often sported a Sam Elliott in a Western type ‘stache), many male (I hope) Sabres bloggers and tweeters are going mustache/sideburns. If you can’t grow one for whatever reason (like the wrong chromosomes), fear not, for there is a t-shirt:
I hope you enjoy them, and let’s go Buffalo!
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Prediction Watch – A Recap
If you recall, at the beginning of the year I gathered up as many of the Eastern Conference playoff predictions I could so we could compare the pundits’ prognostications to what really happened. Now, one day before the playoffs, let’s take a look back and see who was close to right, and who was way off.
As you can see, Corey Masisak and the SBNation Preseason Rankings were close, having Buffalo 6th and 7th respectively. TSN and USA Today’s preseason power rankings also had Buffalo in the 9-11 range in all the NHL, solidly in the playoffs. You can read the rest – some others weren’t very specific, just predicting a return to the playoffs or another division title.
The most fun, though, are the ones who were really, really wrong. Especially Tim Panaccio, the Flyer’s beat writer for CSN Philly. I’ll put the whole thing here again to jog your memory:
5. BUFFALO
Lindy Ruff has been around longer than any other active coach in the league and will set a few records this season for both longevity (games coached) and victories. But as long as current ownership continues to wade in the middle of every season’s salary cap, the Sabres will never realize the dream of a Cup Final. Why goalie Ryan Miller hitched his wagon to this franchise long-term is beyond us. Buffalo is much weaker on defense, having lost both Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder. And the days of Michael Peca’s on-ice leadership are l-o-n-g gone.This gets even better if Buffalo takes out the Flyers in the first round. (that’s 5th in the Northeast, picked below Toronto and Ottawa) Of course, he couldn’t predict that a new owner would come in, or that Vanek would take that leadership mantle, or that the offseason acquisition of Jordan Leopold would work so well, but hey, who am I, right? It’s kind of funny, looking back, at how many of these guys picked the Devils to be top 5 in the NHL.
The Puck Daddy predictions were quite humorous, I was ready to talk up Erin Nicks for picking the Sabres to be 5th, but she also had the Devils first in their division, so that’s a wash. Justin Bourne had Buffalo 7th but also had NJ and Ottawa in the playoffs. Oops.
So there you have it. A great look at the preseason predictions that every columnist conveniently forgets about, unless they manage to hit on something right (which isn’t that often).
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Sabres vs. Flyers – Grudge Match
There’s a history in this matchup, no question, whether it’s the 75 Stanley Cup finals, the 06 playoffs (can still hear RJ’s call of the Umberger hit to this day), and Philly and Buffalo look to add another chapter this week when they meet in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Aside from fanhood reasons, who you think wins this series is probably based on whether or not there is a ‘switch’ that a team can flip to start playing well. In the Flyer’s case, the switch is probably present in the form of lurking horror Chris Pronger, who never met an elbow to the head or stomp to the leg he didn’t like. Having seen Philly a few times recently, you can see that without Pronger they get a little squirrelly in front of Bobrovsky at times. If Pronger can steady things there, I can see the series going differently.
Wild Card for the Sabres: Nathan Gerbe. We know what Thomas Vanek can do, but as Gerbe demonstrated against the Flyers he can be a difference-maker. He, along with Drew Stafford, has been a big part of the Sabres’ surge in the second half of the year, scoring 9 of his 15 goals in the months of March and April after scoring only 1 from October to December. He’s had good chemistry with Paul Gaustad, who provides the bulk in front of the net to screen the goalies.
So, am I going full homer and picking the Sabres to win this series? Yes. I think Ryan Miller, even the slightly more vulnerable one of this year, is still a + over Bobrovsky (or any of the other goalies if he gets the hook). Both Buffalo and Philly are top scoring teams in the East, with Philly having a slight edge, though Buffalo is better in that regard more recently. I’ll tell you what, it’s going to be a very tight series, and I can’t wait for it to happen.
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One
The number you need to know is one. One point seperates the Buffalo Sabres from the playoffs. They can get the point themselves, either tonight or tomorrow night, or the Hurricanes or Rangers can hand it to them by losing, even in OT or the shootout.
Of course, the much more satisfying way to do things is for the Sabres to take care of their own business and win out. Philly (tonight’s opponent) hasn’t exactly been instilling confidence in their fans, and they had a closed-door chew-out session with their GM. Columbus (tomorrow’s opponent) is in a tailspin of epic proportions, having only 3 wins since the beginning of March. They will also be operating on short rest as they play Nashville tonight. Things are stacked in the Sabres’ favor.
Let’s see them accelerate into the playoffs. Bust down the door against Philly, and roll that momentum forward.
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It’s NOT About Miller VS Enroth
Look. I personally have not heard any fan (either around the water cooler at work or from the people I choose to follow on Twitter) say Enroth should start over a completely healthy Ryan Miller. There are always people who like the backup goalie or QB when they play well, but what I’m seeing is more “yeah Enroth is awesome too!” than “He’s better than Miller!”. WGR has had an on air personality or two asking if Enroth should start until he loses, but beyond that, it’s Miller as the number one. I can’t speak for WECK, as I haven’t listened (sorry, I can’t stand political talk and I avoid stations that play it). There’s more furor over the furor about this imagined discussion than anything.
It’s not a perfect example, but this reminded me of the win streak that Biron and the Sabres went on back in 2005-06. Miller wins the job, does pretty well, gets hurt, Biron goes on a run, but Miller is the guy. Biron may have gotten a few extra games here and there because of his performance but everybody knew who the goalie of the future was. Miller is still the goalie of the future and the now. Having an actual backup that is trusted just strengthens the team and gives options for future acquisitions.
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Potential Opponents
Now that the Sabres are all but assured of making the playoffs, let’s take a look at their most likely combatants. There’s a few possibilities here, as the Sabres could be anywhere from 6th to 8th. 7th is the most likely spot to finish in.
First up is the Washington Capitals. The season series with the Caps was 1-2-1, with Miller going 1-2-0 with a 2.32 GAA and .924 SP. Jhonas Enroth played the game last week, losing in OT (sandwiched between those 2 outstanding games for what it is worth). The win, if you recall, was the game that Thomas Vanek dazzled John Carlson and Braden Holtby for the OT winner. I’d be curious to see what a seven game series against the Caps would look like, as Buffalo is playing much better lately, and Washington has some injuries of their own they are dealing with, including Mike Green, Dennis Wideman and Tom Poti on the blueline.
Next up in the likely opponents list is the Flyers. Unlike the Caps, the Sabres have one more game against the Flyers this Friday, going 1-2 in the first three. Ryan Miller has played all 3 games against Philly, and the numbers aren’t great – 4.03 GAA, .881 SP. Again, a couple of those were earlier in the year and the most recent game is a 5-3 win. The Flyers are 2-3-3 in their past 8 and who knows what’s going to happen with their goaltending tandem. Bobrovsky is the likely starter for the playoffs, though you have to think Philly wouldn’t hesitate long to put the more veteran Boucher in there if ‘Bob’ struggles. They’ve also been missing Pronger and Briere, though Briere might be in for the Sabres game Friday. Pronger hasn’t played since March 8th and had a ‘minor setback’ in rehab that puts his earliest return game 1 of a potential playoff matchup at the earliest.
The other likely foe would be the Boston Bruins. This probably happens if the Sabres can overtake Montreal for 6th in the conference. Buffalo has gone 4-1-1 in the season series, with Miller posting the 4-0-1 portion of that, with a 3.01 GAA and .911 SP. Those numbers are skewed a bit by the 7-6 SO win where Stafford scored with 30 seconds to go to tie the game. Tim Thomas took back the goaltending job from Tuukka Rask and had a Vezina-caliber season. I’m really hoping they end up playing Montreal, though. It would be great drama, not to mention they are likely to beat each other up.
As of today, it is still mathematically possible to see the Lightning (and an even smaller chance to see the Penguins) but it’s so unlikely that there’s no reason to worry about it. Looking at the potentials, there’s nobody there that this team, they way they are playing can’t stand toe to toe with. There’s a lot of variables right now with the health of key guys up and down the Eastern conference, including the Sabres with Miller, Pronger as I mentioned, and the Washington D. Boston has the best goaltending situation, but the Sabres still have a great record against them. I know the excitement builds with every passing day, and I expect tonight’s home game crowd to blow the roof off the place. Let’s send this team streaking into the playoffs.
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One Small Step Back
Yes, the team looked like crap much of the game. Yes, Miller whiffed on a few. And Yes, it was the Leafs, who I will ALWAYS hate losing to. At the end, it’s still one game. The Sabres are still solidly in their playoff position, and can improve their chance to hold on to it immensely tonight by beating the Rangers. It would help if the Habs could beat the Hurricanes, too, but they should focus on what they can do. Besides, the game after is against the Canes, best to look at beating them directly when the time comes.
Any positives? Vanek and Pominville scored, putting the Population at 20. Drew Stafford was noticeable again, and so were Gerbe and Ennis. Reimer made some big stops on those guys at times, and they missed on their own a few others.
I would like to give a big eff you to the officials last night. They didn’t cause the Sabres to lose, though they tried, but their inconsistency was almost laughable. They went most of the game calling very little, then called a very weak hooking penalty on Vanek. That was followed by an obvious make-up call in Buffalo’s favor when they called the same penalty on Boyce a few minutes later. There were blatant dives and embellishments missed, again on both sides, but it’s got to be tough for the players to play in a game where you have no idea what’s going to get called.
I’ll be away from home tonight as my son’s Cub Scout troop is going to Lasertron. I’ll DVR the game and check in on it between matches.
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Lovable…Winners?
It was a great (FANTASTIC) weekend for the Sabres, with them winning both games, including another shutout for Miller, and the Canes losing to push them 5 points back. New York and Montreal are both within reach, 2 points ahead. I don’t even want to talk about 5th place, with Tampa Bay going 1-2-2 in their last 5. Pittsburgh is the team I’d want the least to do with in the first round, what with them about to get Crosby back and all.
What’s great to see is how much love the Sabres players are starting to get as a result of their performance. The Pegula effect kick-started it, building excitement with the fanbase, but the team held up their end, winning games. Not just winning games, but beating the teams they need to beat. The ones they ‘should’ beat, and the ones near them in the standings. They are getting shutouts (PLURAL) for Ryan Miller, who is making the saves he needs to make in close games. Nathan Gerbe has gone from a guy that people thought should be back in the AHL to a big-time producer. Of his 14 goals, 3 are game-winners. He has 6 goals in his last 7 games. Tyler Ennis has 19 goals is rolling along at a point per game pace over the past 9 games.
The player that’s probably gained the most appreciation is Thomas Vanek. He was a lightning rod for criticism after the huge offer sheet he signed in the wake of the Drury/Briere exits. Over the past few years he earned his nickname “Atlas” when he’s tried to carry a less-talented team into the playoffs. Now? He has a cast around him, guys playing roles and chipping in, so that if he goes four or five games without a goal, who cares? They’ve got his back, and he’s got theirs. He’s got a letter on his sweater, and his quiet, earnest determination each and every night is rubbing off on his younger teammates. Thomas cares deeply about the success of the Sabres, and it shows on the ice, whether it’s talking to himself after hitting the post or shooting wide, or the obvious relief and understated celebration after finally breaking through. The fans are behind Vanek as well, starting a Vanek for Captain hashtag on Twitter, and I can’t remember the last time someone brought up his contract immediately after mentioning his goal total.
It’s probably the best time to be a Sabres player since 05/06. The future is bright, with the playoffs looking more and more certain, a new owner with a commitment to winning, who is already trying to improve both the fan and player experiences here, and a talent pipeline that looks to be stacked. Everyone is having loads of fun right now, so let’s enjoy it and hope it lasts deep into the spring. Let’s go BUFFALO!
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Back to Back
Another weekend, another pair of back to back games for the Sabres. Tonight they host the Florida Panthers (7:30pm start, take note) and tomorrow it’s the New Jersey Devils. Steve Montador and Jochen Hecht practiced and may return, though lineup changes may be tough to justify. Unless the Sabres burn one of the few remaining non-emergency callups they have, Mancari would have to go back if someone gets back in. He’s played well (Lindy said Mancari/Gerbe/Gaustad might be their best line right now) so it’ll be interesting to see what is done.
For Florida’s part, they’ve been shut out the past two games, by Chicago and the Rangers. If I’m Ruff, and Enroth is in the plans for this weekend, I’d be tempted to put him in tonight. Don’t think it happens though, with Miller fresh off a shutout. Speaking of, it was GREAT to see Miller finally out-duel another good goalie. If that can continue on into the playoffs, there’s no team they’d face in the first round that would intimidate me.
New Jersey’s run is over, as they’ve fallen 9 points back of the Sabres and 8th place. They’ve lost 3 of four, managing just 4 goals, and will also be on the downslope of a back to back. I hesitate to ‘expect’ 4 points out of these games, but if I’m Buffalo, I’d be disappointed with anything less.
