Shutdown Pair

Category: Sabres

  • The “Sophomore Jinx” and Tyler Myers

    Or the Sophomore Slump, whatever it’s called, every hot rookie is said to have to ‘watch out’ for it.  But is it real?  I asked Gabe Desjardins over at Behind The Net the question on Twitter, and here was the response:

    Sophomore slump usually on-ice Sh% regressing to mean, or coach giving young guy tougher assignments. Player doesn’t regress tho

    Hmm, these are two things we have stats for.  Let’s investigate the second part first.  Myers had the highest Quality of Competition rating of any D on the Sabres last year (Tallinder .001 behind as the other member of the shutdown pair), jumping over the boards whenever the likes of Ovechkin, Crosby and Stamkos were on the ice.  I don’t know how much better his opponents can get.  He is top 15 for NHL D in time on ice, averaging 3 minutes shorthanded time AND power play time, so it’s not a matter of playing more.

    With that covered, we look at shooting percentage.  Tyler’s shooting percentage last season was 10.6% on 104 shots, a pretty healthy clip but not abnormally inflated (like say, Lee Stempniak in Phoenix).  Your goal-scoring, offensive defenseman typically has a shooting percentage in the 8-11% range, so there shouldn’t be a huge change here.  What COULD change, and would result in the goal total increase over the next few years I’d expect, is the shot total.  104 is low compared to some of the veteran D that pile up goals (Mike Green 205, Shea Weber 222 for example).  Gabe had an interesting article on this at the end of last season, actually:

    Shooting percentage is essentially constant from Age 19 to 26, and then it begins a long, slow decline.  What does increase, however, is the number of goals scored per game – because the number of shots taken per game goes up much faster than shooting percentage drops

    I think this bodes well for Myers and his ability to improve.  He has a very good point shot, and it’s not a stretch to think that he has the green light to shoot more often.  I’d like to see a total closer to 150 shots, with a focus on using his shot on the power play to create goals and rebound chances.  Even if his shooting percentage dropped a bit, that would still have Myers bumping up his point totals a bit to the 14-15 G, 45A range.  We’ll know more once the first few regular season games get rolling.

  • Sabres End Preseason on a High Note

    While the Flyers dressed what amounts to the roster for their AHL team last night, a 9-3 win HAD to be fun for those present.  You can’t read a lot into it, other than, the guys who were supposed to score scored.  Such as Myers, Ennis, Gerbe, Stafford (1+3, nice job Angry Eyebrows), Roy, Pominville, and so on.  Kaleta knocked out Darroll Powe apparently.  Carcillo did…something to get ejected, no idea what.  Bring on the regular season!

  • Expected Results

    Two more pre-season games, two more wins for the Sabres.  Buffalo got a 2-1 win over ‘Ottawa’ in the Hockeyville game, wherein the Senators didn’t dress their whole top two lines.  Way to show off the game, guys.  The Sabres lineup included Myers, Vanek, and Miller, with the goals scored by Rob Niedermayer on an embarrassing misplay of the puck by 8th string Sens goal Robin Lehner, though he actually played a good game after that.  Especially considering the lineup in front of him.

    Last night saw a 5-3 win for the Sabres over the Canadiens, which you sort of expected when seeing ‘Alex Auld’ pencilled in as Montreal’s starter.  Luke Adam is making his case to be the first forward called up, scoring twice, which follows a two assist effort in the Hockeyville game.  Vanek, Connolly, and Drew Schiestel had the other Buffalo goals, with Myers adding two assists.  A bit of a penalty fest, with fourteen power play chances between the two teams, Buffalo scored twice, Montreal, none on six chances.

    Next game is tonight at Philly.  Regular season is that much closer.

  • Sabres Fall To Leafs 5-4

    Didn’t end up getting to see this, but I didn’t want it to pass without comment.  The big three for the Sabres (Miller, Vanek, Myers) sat this one out, among others, while the Maple Leafs iced what amounts to their regular season lineup.  Nathan Gerbe scored twice, including one on a penalty shot, while Stafford and newcomer Jordan Leopold had the other tallies.  The power play went 2 for 5.

    One thing I like seeing, Buffalo poured on the shots again, putting 39 on Jonas Gustavsson.  That comes after pelting Gustavsson and Rynnas with 44 shots in the previous tussle two nights before.  Hopefully this continues into the regular season, as one thing that bugged me the past couple of years is the Sabres’ tendency to make one too many passes.  Part of the improvement comes from Ennis and Gerbe, who have 13 shots between them in the two games (with Ennis not playing last night for personal reasons).

    Tonight, we get the Kraft Hockeyville game, facing the Senators in Dundas, Ontario.  It’s a neat event, and this might just be viewable for us, unline the rest of these games.

  • Preseason Leafs Smackdown Thoughts

    I went to the Sabres’ 3-1 win over the Leafs on Saturday, and have a few thoughts on what I saw (my phone was out of commission so no pictures, sorry):

    1. Kassian is a beast.  Too bad there won’t likely be a roster spot for him.
    2. Vanek glove-punching a guy was great.
    3. Ennis is going to be good, could be a good addition to the top 6.
    4. Stafford didn’t look out of place on the top 6 either, though, he had some physical plays.
    5. Gerbe knocked down Luca Caputi.  He gives up 9 inches to him (save your ‘That’s what SHE said’ jokes, please).
    6. Guy who whistled like a bird all game:  no one likes you.
    7. To the Leafs fan who whined that we had to use our ‘regular lineup’ to beat their rookies:  HA-HA!  I actually gave Toronto more of a chance with some of those guys in, since they weren’t corrupted by the pre-Burke/Wilson Leafs organization.

    If I can manage to find the game on TV tonight, I’ll be watching from home.  Probably.  Here’s the lineup for this game, courtesy of the Buffalo News.  Maybe that Leafs whiner will be happy, since they will have a more ‘regular’ lineup for tonight.

  • Question: How do you pick your favorite player?

    Always kind of curious about this, as I’ve come into liking my favorite players in a few different ways.  I’ve come up with a few ways that people seem to decide on a guy, see if any of these types fit you:

    1. The best player on your favorite team:  You probably like Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek.  It’s a great feeling to be watching someone who is going for a major trophy, or is starring in commercials, though some people will label you as a bandwagonner.
    2. Heart and soul guys:  You probably like Paul Gaustad or Mike Grier.  You know that goal scorers come and go, but the real glue of a team are the guys who bang bodies, go to the net, kill penalties, wear letters.  They might have gray in their beards.  These fans will talk about a player for years after they are gone, even if they only spent a year or two in town (say, Guerin in Pittsburgh).
    3. Eligible Bachelors:  I get the feeling that the younger puck bunnies go for (ugh) Derek Roy or Jason Pominville, while the non-teenager ones are more about the graybeard heart and soul guys mentioned above.  They have signs (and sometimes wear wedding dresses) for their favorites.  There may be some hockey knowledge, but it’s more about the guys.
    4. Fighters:  Most likely a fan of George Laraque, or Colton Orr, or even better, a fighter from the 70s or 80s that they obsess about.  They like MMA too, with the Tapout shirt and way out of date barbed wire tattoo giving them away.  Often these fans are unaware or at least uninterested in other aspects of hockey.
    5. Pity Party:  You like Drew Stafford, or Patrick Lalime.  Sometimes you just take a liking to the guy that’s getting kicked while he’s down.  You might very well do a doubletake if you see someone wearing their jersey.  Maybe this fan followed the player in college, or watched them tear up the AHL, and haven’t forgotten the glory days.

    I think that covers most situations.  Any disagreements?  Another category I missed?

  • Sabres Camp Details

    The Buffalo Sabres training camp opens Saturday with Puck Drop (which I’m still maybe attending!), and if you still need the dates and times of the open practices and scrimmages, here ya go:

    • Friday, September 17 – 1 p.m. scrimmage – Rookies only (HSBC Arena)
    • Saturday, September 18 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (HSBC Arena)
    • Sunday, September 19 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (HSBC Arena)
    • Monday, September 20 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (HSBC Arena)
    • Tuesday, September 21 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (Amherst Center)
    • Wednesday, September 22 – 9:30 a.m. practice (HSBC Arena)
    • Thursday, September 23 – 9:30 a.m. practice (HSBC Arena)
    • Friday, September 24 – 9:30 a.m. practice (HSBC Arena)
    • Saturday, September 25 – Toronto at Buffalo, 7 p.m. (HSBC Arena)
    • Monday, September 27 – Buffalo at Toronto, 7 p.m. (Air Canada Centre)
    • Tuesday, September 28 – Buffalo at Ottawa, 7:30 p.m. (Dundas, Ontario)
    • Thursday, September 30 – Buffalo at Montreal, 7:30 p.m. (Bell Centre)
    • Friday, October 1 – Buffalo at Philadelphia, 7 p.m. (Wachovia Center)
    • Sunday, October 3 – Philadelphia at Buffalo, 6 p.m. (HSBC Arena)

    The camp roster is here, no surprises there.  IT’S ALMOST HERE FOLKS.

  • New Feature: Prediction Watch

    Just a heads-up that there is a new feature linked at the top of this page:  Prediction Watch.  We all read the preseason predictions levied by the various sportswriters and blog networks out there, but we hardly ever remember who was right or wrong.  So, I’m going to compile a list of predictions of where the Sabres will finish here, and we can see who had the right idea at the end of the season.  I need your help, though.  I don’t get every magazine or spot every article, so if you see one I don’t have, let me know!  Comment on this article, send me an email (thetick at shutdownpair dot com) or send me a tweet.

  • Can You Feel It?

    It’s hockey, and it’s here.  You can watch the first ‘classic game’ from last year tonight on MSG (the Tyler Myers shootout winner game), and Puck Drop is ten days away.  I’ll actually be able to attend it with my son now that plans have changed, so I hope to see all of you there.

  • Matt Ellis? Yeah, Sure, Why Not…

    The Sabres re-signed Matt Ellis yesterday, and according to Capgeek.com it’s a two-way deal.  It’s a one-year deal, $625,000 while in the NHL and just over 100k while in the AHL.  Not a bad example for the kids in Portland, as he works hard every night despite not being the most skilled guy in the league.  The move gives Buffalo a trusted forward to call up in case of injury.  They shouldn’t ask much more than that of him.