Shutdown Pair

Author: TheTick

  • The Hard Truth

    What’s the hard truth?  The power play most likely won’t be fixed in free agency.  At best, this team gets lucky with a signing or trade, strikes on a castoff from another team that maybe will blossom here (sort of like bringing in Briere) and help.  But that’s difficult in the best of times.  I hate to come off too much like Lindy Ruff, but it’s the system that will bring success.  The problem is, the power play system has sucked for a few years, possibly due to the loss of Scott Arniel as assistant coach.  I’m not sure how much better it can get this year, without more of a coaching focus on it.

    So does that mean GMDR should close up shop?  Nah.  If there’s a good value, even if it’s trading our Stafford for what amounts to their Stafford (or signing someone like Patrick O’Sullivan), do it.  For the Sabres advance past the first round of the playoffs next year, it’s going to take team play, chemistry and good coaching.  We know they have the last thing (even with some of Lindy’s quirks), which helps with the first, but that middle item is key.

  • Untouchable Players – A Followup

    Hawerchuk over at Behind the Net took a look at untouchable players, something I’ve thought about previously in regards to the Sabres.  He posits that there are no truly untouchable players in a salary cap league, but there are a few that might as well be based on the cost it would take to get them.  I like the way he puts it here for Drew Doughty:

    if the Atlanta Thrashers or the Edmonton Oilers offered you all of their draft picks for the next three seasons, Doughty still might be more valuable.  In fact, short of another team taking all of your bad contracts off your hands and giving you all of their draft picks, there may not be a set of assets in the entire NHL valuable enough to move a 20-year-old superstar.

    As far as that goes, I suppose that really only leaves Tyler Myers as ‘untouchable’.  Miller is theoretically attainable, because he’s only slightly outperforming his contract (considering he’s one of the highest paid goalies).  Although, as I pointed out, there’s no way he’s moved.  His intagible effect on the team, the confidence they have, the fact that he’s the face of the franchise, he’s a Sabre for as long as they can manage.

  • What to Expect: Thomas Vanek

    Note:  To keep things moving during the off-season, I’m starting a series of posts looking ahead to next season, trying to determine just what we can expect to get out of certain players.

    Let’s start at the top, shall we?  Thomas Vanek had what is a down year by his standards, scoring 28G + 25A to equal 53 points.  That’s still 1st on the team in goals and 4th in points.  He missed 11 regular season games, with various injuries (‘lower body injury’, sometimes ‘abdominal strain’).  I don’t consider Vanek injury prone yet, as the jaw injury was a freak accident that would knock anybody for a loop.

    Vanek might just be the toughest to figure out for next season.  He’s just entering his prime, so in a vacuum I’d have no problem pencilling him in for 35 goals, 40 assists (with a stretch goal all the way up at 45+ goals).  HOWEVER, the problem I have with doing that has nothing to do with Atlas, and everything to do with his teammates.  Vanek suffered from lackluster play from his centers and opposite wingers, and he more than anyone relies on other players getting shots on net that he can tip or scoop up on the rebound.  I hate to bang on the ‘Darcy do something!’ drum too much, but a change on the top 6 might be just what the doctor ordered for our one true goal-scoring threat.

    So where does that leave Thomas Vanek?  Right now I can’t imagine him having more than 30-35 goals with the current ‘core’.  It’s possible he’ll rediscover his chemistry with Roy or Connolly if they are still around, but I am not counting on it.

  • Sabres Draft Day Results

    The Sabres 2010 draft class is complete, which if you need to refer to it, can be found here.  Speaking as someone who is just reading up on these guys now, after the fact, I like it.  It sounded like the Sabres missed out on who they really wanted at 23 (Riley Sheahan who went to the Wings at 21), but got a very solid defensive D-man in Mark Pysyk.  The rest of the class shows the Sabres’ plan – get bigger (as noted below), and go North American.

    The other (more exciting) side of the coin is trades, of which there were few.  The ‘core’ is still here, it’s true, but there’s still plenty of time to make changes.  Trades and free agent signings can still happen, so judgement is reserved on that front.

    By the way, if you played along with my previous post, here are your answers:

    1. Under.  Zero Tylers (the big pick named Tyler came off the board right away, anyway).
    2. Under.  Zero Euros.  Not surprising considering the past two years, but I’m shocked there wasn’t even one that was tempting enough to go for.
    3. Under.  The Ballard deal is the only one worth noting.
    4. Over.  Calling this over, two 6’2″ guys, one 6’4″ and one 6’5″.
    5. Didn’t get to watch the whole thing, unfortunately, but I’m assuming over.  I know from Twitter he was shown at least once.

  • Sabres at the Draft

    Rather than try and and do a mock draft or analyze the prospects available at the spots where Buffalo picks (though the Tinordi kid would look nice next to Myers!), let’s have some fun.  I’m going to list some over/unders, reply to this post with what you think makes sense for them.

    1. +/- .5 – How many Tylers the Sabres draft.
    2. +/- 1.5 – How many European players the Sabres draft.
    3. +/- 1.5 – How many trades happen in the first round (during the broadcast).
    4. +/- 3.5 – Number of players Buffalo drafts taller than 6’2″.
    5. +/- 2.5 – Number of times Brian Burke is shown on TV considering he doesn’t have a pick.

    If you have any other suggestions for things to keep track of, let me know.

  • Congratulations to Ryan Miller and Tyler Myers!

    The title says it all, congratulations to Ryan Miller for winning his first Vezina trophy, along with the NHL Foundation award for his charity work.  Both well-deserved honors, and I’m very happy for him.  I’m also happy that some of the out-of-town media got to hear him give a speech, as he got a lot of praise for being thoughtful and articulate.  It’s cool that we get to hear him all the time.

    Tyler Myers took home some hardware of his own, taking the Calder trophy in a landslide.  He had 94 first place votes, and the next closest was Jimmy Howard with 24.  I’ve been banging the Tyler Myers for Calder drum since he made the team, so it’s pretty satisfying to see him up there towering over everyone with the trophy.  Sweet.

    One thing that’s always interesting is to check the voting numbers for the various awards, which you can see here.  Of note:

    • Miller was 4th for the Hart, with 13 1st place votes.
    • Tyler Myers got 6 5th place votes for the Norris trophy.
    • Jochen Hecht had a 3rd place vote and 4 5th place votes for the Selke.  Grier, Connolly and Gaustad also got votes.
    • Lindy Ruff had 2 2nd place and 7 3rd place votes for the Jack Adams.

    All in all, an impressive showing for our boys, and you can’t help but feel the future is bright for this team.  Here’s hoping for more Calder candidates, and oh yeah, a Stanley Cup in there somewhere would work.

  • NHL Awards Ceremony Pregame

    The NHL gives away it’s major awards tonight in Las Vegas, and I thought I’d toss up some notes in case you are the sort that ignores the off-season until training camp.

    The first name you need to listen for is Ryan Miller.  He is a Vezina finalist, against Brodeur and Bryzgalov.  He has a great look at winning this, especially with the crest of popularity he has from the Olympics here in the US.  Miller is also a top contender for the Messier Leadership award, where he’s up against Sidney Crosby and Shane Doan.

    Miller is also up for the NHL Foundation Award, which, well:

    is awarded annually to the National Hockey League (NHL) player “who applies the core values of (ice) hockey—commitment, perseverance and teamwork—to enrich the lives of people in his community”.

    That’s definitely our man, what with his creation of the Steadfast Foundation and work with other charities.  Mike Green and Dustin Brown are also candidates.

    Perhaps the most interesting award for Sabres fans this year is the Calder trophy, with Tyler Myers up against Matt Duchene of the Avs and Jimmy Howard of the Red Wings.  There are good arguments for all of them, and I’m not honestly sure I could be unbiased about this one.  I think Tyler Myers did more for his team this year, as he basically allowed Buffalo to play the game differently, he came up huge offensively, was huge (heh) in his own zone as well, and soaked up a ton of minutes.  Jimmy Howard could steal this, though, with the ‘goalie is a harder position’ argument.

  • Buffalo Sabres 2010-2011 Schedule: WTF

    As mentioned, the Buffalo Sabres (along with the rest of the league) have announced their schedule, and it’s a doozy (click here for the full sched).  After the road opener in Ottawa, the next 4 games are home against some solid opponents.  The season goes loopy after that, though.  There are TWENTY-TWO back to back games, most of which involve travel (only 4 are both home games, I read from Chris at the Roost, IIRC).  A home game against Boston in the middle of the usual west coast swing.  A seven game roadie at the beginning of March (playoff positioning on the line).  Crazy.

    Buffalo should be on National TV a good bit, as they are frequently playing US teams on the typical Versus Monday and Tuesday timeslots.  For NBC, I bet the Saturday March 5 Sabres/Flyers game ends up there, with a few other possibilities.  I have to look it over more later, to see if there’s a good road trip game for me and the boy, and look at what games I may try to attend.

  • Schedule Day

    The NHL schedules come out at noon today, which is great, since they normally make us wait a few more weeks to plan potential road trips.  The home openers were announced yesterday, so we know that Buffalo opens on the road at Ottawa Friday, October 8, and comes home for the Rangers on October 9.  Not sure if getting back on the horse against the Sens is good or not but there it is.

    Every year I keep looking for a good road trip to take my son on, hopefully there’s a good game somewhere cheap during a convenient time.  A Carolina trip, maybe meeting up with my Dad and brothers, may work.

  • Backing Up Miller

    The backup goalie spot for the Buffalo Sabres is an interesting question for next season.  Barring injury, you can probably pencil Miller in for 65-70 starts again in the regular season, leaving 10-15 for whoever the backup is.  There are a few trains of thought out there as to who that should be.

    1. See if Jhonas Enroth is ready.  He’s progressed well at the AHL level (2.37 GAA, .919 SP last season), and could be a solid, inexpensive option for next year.  A bit more of a wild-card than an established vet, but more upside.
    2. Trade Enroth for a top-6 forward (center?) or D-man (if neither Hank nor Toni re-sign I imagine) and sign a vet backup.  I call this the Marty Biron, as that’s who most folks want back as the backup.  Probably costs a bit more than Enroth, but wouldn’t be a huge cap hit.
    3. Keep Enroth in the AHL and sign a vet backup.  Could still be Marty, Enroth would play more, but with Miller here long-term, it may be better to try and get something for Jhonas, especially with the number of teams that have goalie questions.

    Stick-tap to TheFinnishLine on Twitter for the idea of trading Enroth, as I hadn’t thought of it.  The more I think about it, the more I like the idea.  Miller is our guy, and Enroth could net us (with a pick or a prospect or two) a new center to drop next to Vanek, or a top-4 defender to fill in for Hank or Toni if neither comes back.  I’d lean toward the forward myself, and give some of the Portland guys a try on the back line, but either way it wouldn’t bother me.  If they can’t make a trade, I think I’d want him here as the backup, and not with the Pirates.  I don’t think he’s going to get too much better there, and having a mentor like Ryan Miller could be good for him.