Shutdown Pair

Tag: Tim Connolly

  • Should the Sabres play for next year?

    No, this is not a panic button post, but more the other team in town getting me thinking:  Should Buffalo target next year as the year to make a cup run?  There are some good reasons why they should:

    • Connolly, Niedermayer, Grier, and McCormick off the books – should open some top 6 minutes for Gerbe and Ennis, and possibly an FA center who is more consistent.
    • Next year could mean Luke Adam or Zack Kassian (or both) making the team, upping the size and tenacity of the team.
    • Seriously, read this about Kassian (h/t to Sabres Prospects):

    At the Memorial Cup (in Brandon), neither one of the western teams wanted any part of him. They wouldn’t look him in the eyes.

    • I can’t imagine Jhonas Enroth not being the backup here next year.  Either that or trade the guy.  Tomorrow’s game might be a big factor in that.  If he starts again, I’m seeing the writing on the wall for Lalime, no matter how much Miller and the rest of the guys love him.
    • The biggest question for me is what to do with the defense.  Hopefully a partner for Myers is settled by the end of the year, so whoever that is has to be kept (if it’s not Morrisonn).  Montador and Rivet are UFAs, while Weber, Sekera and Butler are all RFAs.  Someone (or preferably two of them) need to take the next step this year.

    So there you have it.  What does that change about this year?  I’d be hesitant to trade for a ‘rental’ player at the deadline, especially if there is a prospect moving out.  I like our prospects a lot more than I do most of the guys Darcy has brought in at the deadline recently (though a lot of that is hindsight).  I might change my view on that as the season wears on, though.  I do think this team can still make the playoffs, but I can’t imagine a true cup run.

  • The Sabres in October

    October record:  3-7-2

    Overall record:  3-7-2

    Buffalo came into the season with some expectations, as a playoff team from the year before with it’s ‘core’ intact (for better or worse).  I felt that the changes that were made should at least be even swaps.

    So what happened?  Unfortunately, there’s quite a few things that have gone wrong:

    • Jason Pominville’s injury.  He still hasn’t passed his test to get back on the ice.  Perhaps someone should send him Brain Age and a DS to work his brain out a bit.
    • The power play.  6 for 46, 13% won’t cut it.  With the close games they’ve been playing, one extra goal here or there makes all the difference.
    • Tyler Myers has struggled.  He hasn’t been the difference maker he was last year, though I think he might be coming around.  He’s still scoring, including having 2 of the 6 PPG.
    • Ryan Miller has been uneven.  He’s currently sporting a pedestrian .903 save percentage.  He’s bookended starts where he sparkled with games where he…hasn’t.  Not much help in front but some stolen games could be all they need to get on a roll.
    • Craig Rivet, benched.  Not good when you have to bench your captain.

    There is reason for hope, and some positive things to build on however:

    • Derek Roy.  He’s a point per game, with 6 goals (3 on the PP), and tied the recent Atlanta game with 8 seconds left to at least get the team a loser point.
    • Steve Montador is +9, which is part his good play, and part the competition he faces.  Still, he’s been solid since last year, so it’s good to see him getting some recognition.
    • Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford have been at or above my expectations, combining for 5 goals and 14 points.  Both are solidly plus players.

    In reality, the Sabres still only sit 2 games out of a playoff spot, with 70 more to play.  They have a goalie that has yet to play his best, and injured players that will be coming back.  The leash is short, though, before a ‘shake-up’ change begins to be something that I’d agitate for.  Still looking at you, Timmy…

  • The Road Warriors

    That’s what the Sabres are lacking, a dog (sorry Sabretooth)

    It’s kind of ridiculous, really.  We’ve seen plenty of ‘good signs’ for the Sabres at home, but they still haven’t gotten it done.  Then we see them blast the Devils, without Kovalchuk (seriously what the heck?) and Brodeur on the road, and it doesn’t tell us anything.  Tim Connolly, Tyler Myers, and Thomas Vanek are all scoring now, which is good, right?  But will it last?  Again, good signs abound, but these guys have to get it through their heads that they can do that to any team in the league, any given night.  We can see that they are capable of it, they have great passers, solid finishers, guys with great point shots, and a dominant goalie.  They just need to get things done.

    ***

    Okay, what the heck is up with Kovalchuk?  I’m not sure what the Devils and John MacLean hope to accomplish by sitting him – goal scorers don’t score/break slumps wearing a suit.  I can appreciate the desire to sit an underperforming player, but I feel that scorers just need to play out of it.  It’s also a PR NIGHTMARE for a team that also had tons of negative press over his contract to begin with.  Look at it this way:  before the bizarre Kovy benching, I would’ve shrugged off an NJ slump and assumed they’d get back in the mix by Christmas.  Now, I have a few more doubts, wondering about locker room issues and MacLean losing the team/getting fired.  Wouldn’t be the first time Lou has dumped a coach and taken over…

  • Buffalo Sabres: The Week Ahead

    The Sabres currently have a dismal 1-4-1 record, 5th in the NE, and the panic button is being mashed by some people.  It’s still way too early to do it, though.  Their schedule is busy, some of the parts have changed, so there are some expected hiccups.  This lull from Sunday to Wednesday is the first time they’ll really have some practices where they can work on their issues.  And they do have issues, no doubt.

    Things to try:

    • Play Vanek on the PK.  He’s responded well for stretches with the extra responsibility in the past, and his defense hasn’t been bad.  Might keep his spirits up a bit to feel like more of a contributor.  Worth a shot.
    • Myers needs to just stop thinking and shoot.  I don’t know what the coaches said the to kid, but he’s falling into the ‘look for a play’ trap.  Half of his goals last year came from just saying “screw it” and shooting when he got the puck.  He needs to get back to it.
    • Sit Tim Connolly for a game.  I call this move the Stafford.  Timmy has been rough out there at times, and it’s time to make an example of him.  Roll seven d-men if you have to, or just put Pominville back in once he’s back.

    You can go ahead and add in all the stuff the coaches say duringa slump, like ‘simplify their game’, ‘crash the net’, ‘get shots through’, ‘play the system’ (Lindy approved).  You guys know all that already, though.  Anything else you think they should try?

  • A Pound of Flesh

    In the aftermath of last night’s horrible scene, I wonder:  where do you stand on on-ice vengeance?  There are several levels it can get to, where do you stop looking for blood?

    1. Immediately after the play.  In this case Connolly was on the ice and went after Hjalmarsson.  Not too satisfying to most fans, as a skilled player giving the offender what amounts to a hug with some face slaps isn’t what they want.  Stafford, at least, did a solid job on Neil after the Drury hit.  Goose, too, after that Ovechkin hit on Briere a few years ago.
    2. The rest of the game.  If you have any sort of tough guy on the roster, this one’s going to happen – a fight with someone on the offending team.  Not all that satisfying last night, as Hjalmarsson was kicked out and couldn’t take his lumps, which leads to…
    3. The next game.  Buffalo travels to Chicago on Saturday, which (barring a Stanley Cup Finals matchup) is the last time they’ll see each other this year.  There are two games in between, so if the disciplinary decision comes down today, and it’s 0-2 games of suspension, Hjalmarsson could get targeted then.  These fights are usually a letdown, though, if the offender is not normally a fighter.  Somebody swinging wildly at him, while he covers up and ‘fires back’ a few times to make it look good.

    That’s your choices, really.  The only thing that can complicate them is a rivalry, which is tough to build up with a team from the other conference.  How far do you want your vengeance to go?

  • Expected Results

    Two more pre-season games, two more wins for the Sabres.  Buffalo got a 2-1 win over ‘Ottawa’ in the Hockeyville game, wherein the Senators didn’t dress their whole top two lines.  Way to show off the game, guys.  The Sabres lineup included Myers, Vanek, and Miller, with the goals scored by Rob Niedermayer on an embarrassing misplay of the puck by 8th string Sens goal Robin Lehner, though he actually played a good game after that.  Especially considering the lineup in front of him.

    Last night saw a 5-3 win for the Sabres over the Canadiens, which you sort of expected when seeing ‘Alex Auld’ pencilled in as Montreal’s starter.  Luke Adam is making his case to be the first forward called up, scoring twice, which follows a two assist effort in the Hockeyville game.  Vanek, Connolly, and Drew Schiestel had the other Buffalo goals, with Myers adding two assists.  A bit of a penalty fest, with fourteen power play chances between the two teams, Buffalo scored twice, Montreal, none on six chances.

    Next game is tonight at Philly.  Regular season is that much closer.

  • Buffalo Sabres: A Look At The Depth Chart

    With training camp less than a month away, and the Buffalo Sabres roster looking pretty much set, I thought now would be a good time to investigate the lines and defense pairings for the coming season.  Starting up front:

    Ennis – Connolly – Pominville
    Vanek – Roy – Stafford/McCormick?
    Gerbe – Gaustad – Kaleta
    Hecht – Niedermayer – Grier

    It’s an odd mix of diminutive players and size/grit, to be sure.  Zack Kassian could make things interesting when he’s off his time-out from GMDR and gets to sign.  I’m not sure what happens if McCormick gets one of the RW spots, Stafford really is the only one that can come out.  I don’t think you play anybody out of position to try and keep him in the lineup.  Gerbe, I suppose, could end up on the fourth line if Lindy wants to keep Hecht up on the third, though my hope is with cagey vets like Grier and Niedermayer taking over the fourth line will get more than 6 minutes a night.  It’s a lineup that has some scoring potential, but should help out the revamped defense core quite a bit as well.  Speaking of:

    Myers (RH) – Morrisonn (LH)
    Montador (RH) – Leopold (LH)
    Rivet (RH) – Sekera (LH)

    Butler (LH)

    Obviously Myers is the top dog, and I slotted Morrisonn next to him as he’s another more stay at home type as Tallinder was for Tyler last year.  You get a similar Off/Def pair with Montador/Leopold, leaving Rivet and his bad shoulder to mentor Sekera and Butler in the third pair.  This keeps the left hand/right hand balance, and keeps Rivet healthier so he can bulldoze some guys in front of Miller.  If Leopold can chip in points to balance the Myers pairing, the offense from the backend will be right where it needs to be.  Now, Morrisonn may not fit in as a first pair guy which blows all this up but I think this works the best.

    I don’t HAVE to go over the goalies, do I?  Miller gets more work than we like (without the Olympics thankfully), especially considering the TWENTY TWO back to back game situations.  Does Lalime get 15 games?  Lalime and Enroth combined for 14 starts last year, I’d like to see that at 20 with all the back to backs but I can’t predict it.

    Look, it’s not the wholesale changes in the top 6 we were looking for, but as we’ve investigated before, there aren’t a lot of guys available who are a for-sure improvement.  Stempniak might be a one-hit wonder, and there’s that self-imposed cap…

  • What to Expect: Derek Roy

    Derek Roy led the team in points last year, had 26 goals with 10 on the powerplay, and managed only 2 assists in the playoffs.  He logs a lot of minutes (as a number one/two center should)).  So what will happen this year?  We’ll get more Cellino and Barnes, that’s for sure.

    Derek Roy is nothing if not consistently productive.  25-30 goals, 45 or so assists, solid power play contributor.  I’d have no problem predicting him to be right in that range again.  He’s been healthy, another plus as compared to Timmy.  Roy is the more tradeable of these two, with a $4mil cap hit to boot, but like I said for TC there really aren’t too many better options on the market so I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    A bit of a confession – I don’t hate Derek.  Since he’s cut down on the yapping and the diving, I’m perfectly fine with him being on the team.  It wouldn’t break my heart to see him and his fauxhawk somewhere else, but there darn well better be a 30 goal scorer returning.

  • What to Expect: Tim Connolly

    Now HERE we go.  The player everyone loves to hate, or at least strongly dislike.  He had 65 points in 73 games, with 17G and 48A.  7 PPG mixed in there, 18 minutes of ice time per game.  Not bad, really, just looking at the numbers from the outside.  But it’s all the other stuff that bothers you, isn’t it?  Pictures at bars…streaks of no scoring…injuries…whatever else you think of.  Fans are tired of not know what they get night in, night out.

    So what happens to Timmy this year?  Here are the options:

    1. He gets traded before the season– There are a few teams that need to add salary or at the very least could use a playmaking center.  Darcy’s theory is the trade market will heat up after more of the free agents find homes, and I think he may be right.
    2. He gets traded at the deadline – Tough to see this really happening, if you assume the Sabres are in contention.  At the same time, it happened to Campbell so you never know.
    3. He plays out the season – This won’t be a popular option, I’m guessing, but I’m thinking it’s a likely one.  It’s going to depend on whether or not GMDR can find another ‘top 20 center’ to take his place.  You know Darcy isn’t dumping Timmy if there’s no good replacement.
    4. He sneezes and his brain falls out his ear – Just saying, it could happen.

    What do I think happens?  My gut says he stays and plays out the season.  Next most likely is a pre-season trade.  As far as scoring?  If he stays healthy (!), you can pencil him in for 20G, 50A, but you are more likely to see 15G, 40A in an injury shortened season.

  • Tim Conboy

    You know, I was listening to WGR on the way in to work today, and I was momentarily floored…were they really asking about our favorite Tim Connolly memory? Did we find a sucker to trade for him? But no, it was Tim Conboy, most famous (to us at any rate) for letting a 5’5″ player goad him into attacking from behind.  Anyway, Conboy is on a two-way contract so will stay in Portland unless there is a rash of injuries.  Would be interesting to see how interactions between him and Gerbe would go.