Shutdown Pair

Author: TheTick

  • The “Sophomore Jinx” and Tyler Myers

    Or the Sophomore Slump, whatever it’s called, every hot rookie is said to have to ‘watch out’ for it.  But is it real?  I asked Gabe Desjardins over at Behind The Net the question on Twitter, and here was the response:

    Sophomore slump usually on-ice Sh% regressing to mean, or coach giving young guy tougher assignments. Player doesn’t regress tho

    Hmm, these are two things we have stats for.  Let’s investigate the second part first.  Myers had the highest Quality of Competition rating of any D on the Sabres last year (Tallinder .001 behind as the other member of the shutdown pair), jumping over the boards whenever the likes of Ovechkin, Crosby and Stamkos were on the ice.  I don’t know how much better his opponents can get.  He is top 15 for NHL D in time on ice, averaging 3 minutes shorthanded time AND power play time, so it’s not a matter of playing more.

    With that covered, we look at shooting percentage.  Tyler’s shooting percentage last season was 10.6% on 104 shots, a pretty healthy clip but not abnormally inflated (like say, Lee Stempniak in Phoenix).  Your goal-scoring, offensive defenseman typically has a shooting percentage in the 8-11% range, so there shouldn’t be a huge change here.  What COULD change, and would result in the goal total increase over the next few years I’d expect, is the shot total.  104 is low compared to some of the veteran D that pile up goals (Mike Green 205, Shea Weber 222 for example).  Gabe had an interesting article on this at the end of last season, actually:

    Shooting percentage is essentially constant from Age 19 to 26, and then it begins a long, slow decline.  What does increase, however, is the number of goals scored per game – because the number of shots taken per game goes up much faster than shooting percentage drops

    I think this bodes well for Myers and his ability to improve.  He has a very good point shot, and it’s not a stretch to think that he has the green light to shoot more often.  I’d like to see a total closer to 150 shots, with a focus on using his shot on the power play to create goals and rebound chances.  Even if his shooting percentage dropped a bit, that would still have Myers bumping up his point totals a bit to the 14-15 G, 45A range.  We’ll know more once the first few regular season games get rolling.

  • Sabres End Preseason on a High Note

    While the Flyers dressed what amounts to the roster for their AHL team last night, a 9-3 win HAD to be fun for those present.  You can’t read a lot into it, other than, the guys who were supposed to score scored.  Such as Myers, Ennis, Gerbe, Stafford (1+3, nice job Angry Eyebrows), Roy, Pominville, and so on.  Kaleta knocked out Darroll Powe apparently.  Carcillo did…something to get ejected, no idea what.  Bring on the regular season!

  • Expected Results

    Two more pre-season games, two more wins for the Sabres.  Buffalo got a 2-1 win over ‘Ottawa’ in the Hockeyville game, wherein the Senators didn’t dress their whole top two lines.  Way to show off the game, guys.  The Sabres lineup included Myers, Vanek, and Miller, with the goals scored by Rob Niedermayer on an embarrassing misplay of the puck by 8th string Sens goal Robin Lehner, though he actually played a good game after that.  Especially considering the lineup in front of him.

    Last night saw a 5-3 win for the Sabres over the Canadiens, which you sort of expected when seeing ‘Alex Auld’ pencilled in as Montreal’s starter.  Luke Adam is making his case to be the first forward called up, scoring twice, which follows a two assist effort in the Hockeyville game.  Vanek, Connolly, and Drew Schiestel had the other Buffalo goals, with Myers adding two assists.  A bit of a penalty fest, with fourteen power play chances between the two teams, Buffalo scored twice, Montreal, none on six chances.

    Next game is tonight at Philly.  Regular season is that much closer.

  • Sabres Fall To Leafs 5-4

    Didn’t end up getting to see this, but I didn’t want it to pass without comment.  The big three for the Sabres (Miller, Vanek, Myers) sat this one out, among others, while the Maple Leafs iced what amounts to their regular season lineup.  Nathan Gerbe scored twice, including one on a penalty shot, while Stafford and newcomer Jordan Leopold had the other tallies.  The power play went 2 for 5.

    One thing I like seeing, Buffalo poured on the shots again, putting 39 on Jonas Gustavsson.  That comes after pelting Gustavsson and Rynnas with 44 shots in the previous tussle two nights before.  Hopefully this continues into the regular season, as one thing that bugged me the past couple of years is the Sabres’ tendency to make one too many passes.  Part of the improvement comes from Ennis and Gerbe, who have 13 shots between them in the two games (with Ennis not playing last night for personal reasons).

    Tonight, we get the Kraft Hockeyville game, facing the Senators in Dundas, Ontario.  It’s a neat event, and this might just be viewable for us, unline the rest of these games.

  • Preseason Leafs Smackdown Thoughts

    I went to the Sabres’ 3-1 win over the Leafs on Saturday, and have a few thoughts on what I saw (my phone was out of commission so no pictures, sorry):

    1. Kassian is a beast.  Too bad there won’t likely be a roster spot for him.
    2. Vanek glove-punching a guy was great.
    3. Ennis is going to be good, could be a good addition to the top 6.
    4. Stafford didn’t look out of place on the top 6 either, though, he had some physical plays.
    5. Gerbe knocked down Luca Caputi.  He gives up 9 inches to him (save your ‘That’s what SHE said’ jokes, please).
    6. Guy who whistled like a bird all game:  no one likes you.
    7. To the Leafs fan who whined that we had to use our ‘regular lineup’ to beat their rookies:  HA-HA!  I actually gave Toronto more of a chance with some of those guys in, since they weren’t corrupted by the pre-Burke/Wilson Leafs organization.

    If I can manage to find the game on TV tonight, I’ll be watching from home.  Probably.  Here’s the lineup for this game, courtesy of the Buffalo News.  Maybe that Leafs whiner will be happy, since they will have a more ‘regular’ lineup for tonight.

  • So Who IS Tougher, the Average Hockey Player or Football Player?

    The Twitter discussion yesterday between Thurman Thomas and Matthew Barnaby (with Mike Commodore’s 2 cents) got me thinking on this:  who really IS tougher, an average hockey player or football player?  Let’s think.

    1. Activity Level:  Both have ’60 minute’ games.  Football players take half of the game off, though, with the offense sitting down while the defense is on the field and vice versa.  However, there are more hockey players playing in each game, so the actual time on the field favors football.  Football loses this for me, though, in that even when you ARE on the field, there’s 10-15 seconds of activity, and then 30 seconds of huddle.  Slight Advantage to hockey.
    2. Violence:  I think Thurman was underestimating this.  His crack about hockey players losing teeth versus football players getting concussions is silly.  Ask Eric Lindros, or even Chris Drury and RJ Umberger about concussions in hockey.  Have to give a slight edge to football here though, as there are potentially dangerous hits most every play, with big linemen landing on you, rolling your ankles, getting knees buckled, horse-collar tackles, and so forth.  And I’m not putting hockey over the top by throwing fighting in the mix, as it’s fairly rare nowadays, and for the most part only done by a select group regularly (keeping kickers and punters out of this for the same reason).  Slight advantage to football.
    3. Longevity:  This one’s a wash, to my mind.  I’ve seen the 5 year average career number for NHL players (including Commodore mentioning it), while anywhere from 3.5 years to 4.6 years for NFL players.  I believe the NHL number is slightly higher because a borderline player can bounce between the NHL and AHL (or Europe) a few times.  Someone like Cody McCormick, who has been going back and forth between various AHL teams and the NHL doesn’t happen much in the NFL.  Also, to refute something Thurman said, tears (of ligaments etc.) are the most common injury in the NFL, while concussions are possible in both.  Even.

    So what’s my verdict?  Guys, you are BOTH super-tough.  I got the feeling this was all in good-natured fun, but I think this would be a great opportunity for ESPN or Versus to have a ‘Shaq VS.’ type show with these guys.  Picture it:  Barnaby and other recent NHL retirees have to play running back and absorb hits from former NFL linebackers (Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi aren’t busy, are they?), and Thurman and some friends have to act as defensemen while Al MacInnis, Jeremy Roenick or other former NHLers fire shots on net.  Show ’em just the sort of toughness hockey requires, since it’s not all about hitting somebody or fighting.

  • Question: How do you pick your favorite player?

    Always kind of curious about this, as I’ve come into liking my favorite players in a few different ways.  I’ve come up with a few ways that people seem to decide on a guy, see if any of these types fit you:

    1. The best player on your favorite team:  You probably like Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek.  It’s a great feeling to be watching someone who is going for a major trophy, or is starring in commercials, though some people will label you as a bandwagonner.
    2. Heart and soul guys:  You probably like Paul Gaustad or Mike Grier.  You know that goal scorers come and go, but the real glue of a team are the guys who bang bodies, go to the net, kill penalties, wear letters.  They might have gray in their beards.  These fans will talk about a player for years after they are gone, even if they only spent a year or two in town (say, Guerin in Pittsburgh).
    3. Eligible Bachelors:  I get the feeling that the younger puck bunnies go for (ugh) Derek Roy or Jason Pominville, while the non-teenager ones are more about the graybeard heart and soul guys mentioned above.  They have signs (and sometimes wear wedding dresses) for their favorites.  There may be some hockey knowledge, but it’s more about the guys.
    4. Fighters:  Most likely a fan of George Laraque, or Colton Orr, or even better, a fighter from the 70s or 80s that they obsess about.  They like MMA too, with the Tapout shirt and way out of date barbed wire tattoo giving them away.  Often these fans are unaware or at least uninterested in other aspects of hockey.
    5. Pity Party:  You like Drew Stafford, or Patrick Lalime.  Sometimes you just take a liking to the guy that’s getting kicked while he’s down.  You might very well do a doubletake if you see someone wearing their jersey.  Maybe this fan followed the player in college, or watched them tear up the AHL, and haven’t forgotten the glory days.

    I think that covers most situations.  Any disagreements?  Another category I missed?

  • Site Feature: Clip to Evernote

    Just a quick note about this, but if you look at the bottom of the posts now, you see a little green CLIP icon – that will allow you to save the contents of posts here to Evernote.  Nice feature for those of you that use it.

  • Fantasy Hockey: Shutdown Pair’s Official League

    Hi all, I am a glutton for fantasy sports punishment, so I have set up an Official Shutdown Pair Fantasy Hockey league over at Yahoo.  Email me at thetick at shutdown pair dot com, comment here, or contact me on Twitter if you want in.  Currently set to 10 teams, can expand if there is interest.

  • Sabres Camp Details

    The Buffalo Sabres training camp opens Saturday with Puck Drop (which I’m still maybe attending!), and if you still need the dates and times of the open practices and scrimmages, here ya go:

    • Friday, September 17 – 1 p.m. scrimmage – Rookies only (HSBC Arena)
    • Saturday, September 18 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (HSBC Arena)
    • Sunday, September 19 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (HSBC Arena)
    • Monday, September 20 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (HSBC Arena)
    • Tuesday, September 21 – 9:45 a.m. practice; 11:45 a.m. scrimmage (Amherst Center)
    • Wednesday, September 22 – 9:30 a.m. practice (HSBC Arena)
    • Thursday, September 23 – 9:30 a.m. practice (HSBC Arena)
    • Friday, September 24 – 9:30 a.m. practice (HSBC Arena)
    • Saturday, September 25 – Toronto at Buffalo, 7 p.m. (HSBC Arena)
    • Monday, September 27 – Buffalo at Toronto, 7 p.m. (Air Canada Centre)
    • Tuesday, September 28 – Buffalo at Ottawa, 7:30 p.m. (Dundas, Ontario)
    • Thursday, September 30 – Buffalo at Montreal, 7:30 p.m. (Bell Centre)
    • Friday, October 1 – Buffalo at Philadelphia, 7 p.m. (Wachovia Center)
    • Sunday, October 3 – Philadelphia at Buffalo, 6 p.m. (HSBC Arena)

    The camp roster is here, no surprises there.  IT’S ALMOST HERE FOLKS.